Recently the NPD had stated that they would no longer be providing their estimates of hardware and software sales to the media, which meant that the public wouldn't be seeing them. The public was outraged and NPD was surprised by the widespread backlash.
This phenomenon is really quite interesting. After all, if you've already bought a Wii or X360, why should you care how many are selling each month? What difference does it make when you've already made your purchase?
In July of this year I did a compilation of 3 years worth of GameTunnel's monthly round-up, creating a Top 100 games list based on the round-ups. In addition to learning that most people don't actually read an article before responding to it, doing the top 100 compilation reinforced something I'd already learned through my Game of the Year articles, people need context.
Each year GameTunnel has done a game of the year article highlighting the Top 10 Indie games. It's an impossible task that cannot possibly please everyone and will even leave some people indignant. Doing the Game of the Year awards takes around 160 hours of my time every December. So why am I doing it again?
If you go to the listing of Action games on GameTunnel, you are quick to become overloaded. There are so many games! Which ones are good?
This is the problem of context.
There has been some decrying of review scores lately and I agree with the complaints. In fact GT did away with review scores 3 years ago. However, I'm not sure that not having review scores helps the general public.
The general public needs some sort of context to make decisions or the decision will be to do something else with their time and money. Looking at the list of Action games on GameTunnel, you should be able to find a game you will absolutely love. However, due to the fact that you have no context to compare the games one to another, you are more likely to become overwhelmed by the sheer number of games and quickly move onto somewhere else where there is context.
The GOTY awards for GT provide context. Though impossible to make the perfect list of top games, it provides a list of games that are considered to be the best. It's a starting point. It gives the reader a context to work within. It keeps people from feeling overwhelmed by the available choices and gives them direction.
NPD data also provides direction. Though the blog commenters who complained about not having the data have already purchased hardware and software, most of them are trying to put their purchases into context. Are they a part of the majority? Are they missing out on something? There is a secondary issue of the comfort of the majority, but the primary issue is context.
If you make games, what is the context that will get people to notice them? Nintendo used alpha moms to make the Wii more relevant and a brilliant pack-in game. Mystery Case Files launched a new game this week that is more of the same, but more polished. However, the brand gives context and makes the game have tremendous value that it wouldn't have had if it had been released as a MCF game. Jay Barnson runs a blog about RPGs and development and sells games he recommends alongside the blog.
Indie and casual games both face a low awareness and struggle in having the right context for the customer. How to help customers find quickly find something so they don't leave, and so that they also add the vendor's website to the small list of sites they visit frequently.
How are you providing context to what you are doing? How are you helping your customers find things for them? If you aren't doing it, be assured someone else is.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Thursday, November 8, 2007
A Wii bit of fun
After reading an interview from Eidos' CTO Julien Merceron I couldn't help but blog about it. The thought put forward is that if 3rd party games don't sell on the Wii this Christmas, 3rd parties will decrease their support, and that will hurt the Wii sales. (read it here)
The Wii is really leaving people scratching their heads as it seems that most 3rd parties aren't sure what to do. However, I think the clear thing to do is to make good games. No 3rd party has yet tried something as ambitious as Zelda, Mario Galaxy, Super Paper Mario or Metroid on the platform. That's understandable as a year ago the 3rd parties were caught totally surprised when the Wii sold and the PS3 floundered. Immediately effort went into making Wii games, but they've mostly been low-effort games such as the library of Ubisoft ports and rushed EA efforts like EA Playground (no depth) and Boogie (no fun).
But let's think about the logic put forward by Eidos.
1 - 3rd party games aren't selling
2 - if they don't sell this Christmas 3rd parties will decrease support
3 - if 3rd parties decrease support the Wii won't sell well.
Do you see the problem? #3 isn't supported by numbers 1 & 2.
If currently condition 1 exists and the Wii is selling well, than condition 1 does not have any impact on the Wii selling well. Removing games that are already not selling well won't impact the Wii.
The second issue is the one that I alluded to earlier. 3rd party games aren't selling well because, 3rd parties aren't making good games for the Wii.
What is the highest profile 3rd party release so far on the Wii? I think it is Red Steel, an early effort that was a decent try, but beyond that, what high profile games have been made? Mario & Sonic at the Olympics isn't exactly 3rd party. Guitar Hero 3 is, and it's probably the highest profile, however its not exclusive by any means, and most would state that it was the number 3 sku for the Activision in terms of importance.
If 3rd party developers don't make good games they aren't going to sell on the Wii. Blaming Nintendo for the problem is disingenuous. Unless of course the blaming is something along the lines of "we can't compete with Nintendo on the Wii, their games are so much better than ours that we don't stand a chance." No CTO in their right mind will state that, but its a lot closer to the truth of the matter, but it has probably more to do with publisher's not understanding what a good game for the Wii is.
As soon as I see any 3rd party game near the quality of the top teir 1st party releases on the Wii (or even the DS for that matter) and receiving a lot of love from its developer (sorry Zach and Wiki, that's where you get off), and it doesn't sell well, then we can talk about the problem being Nintendo. Until then, 3rd party developers should focus more on making solid products and less on blaming Nintendo for their shovelware not selling.
Interestingly, the top 10 Wii games for September are as follows:
Wii Play W/ Remote (Nintendo)
Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (Nintendo)
Mario Party 8 (Nintendo)
Carnival Games (Take-Two Interactive)
My Sims (Electronic Arts)
Mario Strikers: Charged (Nintendo)
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08 (Electronic Arts)
Madden NFL 08 (Electronic Arts)
Legend Of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Nintendo)
Resident Evil 4 (Capcom)
5/10 games are by Nintendo, 3/10 by EA and the other 3 are split. RE4 was initially an exclusive for the GCN (and was the top selling GCN game the year it was released).
The more interesting point is one that Bill Harris made in regards to Carnival Games being the best selling 3rd party game despite getting horrible reviews. I wanted to echo his point.
Reviews on mulitiplayer games are scoring the games badly because they are looking at the single player experience. I've rented a lot of multiplayer games and my biggest surprise has been that games that received horrible reviews like Donkey Kong Barrel Blast and NBA Live 08 are actually good games. However, if you play them alone they are horrible. Since most of my play is with my kids, and we play A LOT, I have a very different perspective on what a fun game is. EA Playground - not fun, because it isn't fun playing it together. NBA Live 08, great fun because we can really enjoy playing together. However, in playing single player on both those games my opinion is reversed. EA Playground is a great single-player game with decent depth. NBA Live 08 is a horrible single-player basketball (as usual). The problem began with low scores on Wii Sports, and as a single player it isn't great, but as a multiplayer it is without question one of the best games every made.
However, review scores are clearly focused on the single player experience or the multiplayer experience where each person is located in different locations and connected by the internet. There is a new type of gamer, those who play together in groups. Reviewers are starting to note the trend, but they aren't sure how to review for it. Most interesting was the recent Mario and Sonic at the Olympics review by GamePro that suggested casual gamers would like it (though the reviewer wasn't a casual gamer). I think a lot of reviewers are starting to feel like they are having to guess a game might score better for a different crowd...and they are starting to realize, the Wii has succeeded in bringing in players who the reviewers have very little in common with.
End result?
Developers for the Wii need to focus on making great games first. RE4 is selling (over 1 million copies so far), Metroid is selling. Good games sell. Carnival Games is a good game, but I think most publishers, like most reviewers don't understand why, and THAT is why publishers are having a hard time selling games on the Wii.
Those publishers who understand why are going to find themselves selling plenty of games on the Wii. Publishers who try the more traditional approach of putting their third string developers on a port of some key title from another platform, so that they can say they have games on the Wii, are going to find themselves at a loss as to why not only Mario Party and Metroid, but also Carnival Games and Cooking Mama sell and their games don't. In either case, learning who the market is and making good games for that market is the key. The only thing that has changed on the Wii is who that market is. Some developers are still trying to figure that out.
The Wii is really leaving people scratching their heads as it seems that most 3rd parties aren't sure what to do. However, I think the clear thing to do is to make good games. No 3rd party has yet tried something as ambitious as Zelda, Mario Galaxy, Super Paper Mario or Metroid on the platform. That's understandable as a year ago the 3rd parties were caught totally surprised when the Wii sold and the PS3 floundered. Immediately effort went into making Wii games, but they've mostly been low-effort games such as the library of Ubisoft ports and rushed EA efforts like EA Playground (no depth) and Boogie (no fun).
But let's think about the logic put forward by Eidos.
1 - 3rd party games aren't selling
2 - if they don't sell this Christmas 3rd parties will decrease support
3 - if 3rd parties decrease support the Wii won't sell well.
Do you see the problem? #3 isn't supported by numbers 1 & 2.
If currently condition 1 exists and the Wii is selling well, than condition 1 does not have any impact on the Wii selling well. Removing games that are already not selling well won't impact the Wii.
The second issue is the one that I alluded to earlier. 3rd party games aren't selling well because, 3rd parties aren't making good games for the Wii.
What is the highest profile 3rd party release so far on the Wii? I think it is Red Steel, an early effort that was a decent try, but beyond that, what high profile games have been made? Mario & Sonic at the Olympics isn't exactly 3rd party. Guitar Hero 3 is, and it's probably the highest profile, however its not exclusive by any means, and most would state that it was the number 3 sku for the Activision in terms of importance.
If 3rd party developers don't make good games they aren't going to sell on the Wii. Blaming Nintendo for the problem is disingenuous. Unless of course the blaming is something along the lines of "we can't compete with Nintendo on the Wii, their games are so much better than ours that we don't stand a chance." No CTO in their right mind will state that, but its a lot closer to the truth of the matter, but it has probably more to do with publisher's not understanding what a good game for the Wii is.
As soon as I see any 3rd party game near the quality of the top teir 1st party releases on the Wii (or even the DS for that matter) and receiving a lot of love from its developer (sorry Zach and Wiki, that's where you get off), and it doesn't sell well, then we can talk about the problem being Nintendo. Until then, 3rd party developers should focus more on making solid products and less on blaming Nintendo for their shovelware not selling.
Interestingly, the top 10 Wii games for September are as follows:
Wii Play W/ Remote (Nintendo)
Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (Nintendo)
Mario Party 8 (Nintendo)
Carnival Games (Take-Two Interactive)
My Sims (Electronic Arts)
Mario Strikers: Charged (Nintendo)
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08 (Electronic Arts)
Madden NFL 08 (Electronic Arts)
Legend Of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Nintendo)
Resident Evil 4 (Capcom)
5/10 games are by Nintendo, 3/10 by EA and the other 3 are split. RE4 was initially an exclusive for the GCN (and was the top selling GCN game the year it was released).
The more interesting point is one that Bill Harris made in regards to Carnival Games being the best selling 3rd party game despite getting horrible reviews. I wanted to echo his point.
Reviews on mulitiplayer games are scoring the games badly because they are looking at the single player experience. I've rented a lot of multiplayer games and my biggest surprise has been that games that received horrible reviews like Donkey Kong Barrel Blast and NBA Live 08 are actually good games. However, if you play them alone they are horrible. Since most of my play is with my kids, and we play A LOT, I have a very different perspective on what a fun game is. EA Playground - not fun, because it isn't fun playing it together. NBA Live 08, great fun because we can really enjoy playing together. However, in playing single player on both those games my opinion is reversed. EA Playground is a great single-player game with decent depth. NBA Live 08 is a horrible single-player basketball (as usual). The problem began with low scores on Wii Sports, and as a single player it isn't great, but as a multiplayer it is without question one of the best games every made.
However, review scores are clearly focused on the single player experience or the multiplayer experience where each person is located in different locations and connected by the internet. There is a new type of gamer, those who play together in groups. Reviewers are starting to note the trend, but they aren't sure how to review for it. Most interesting was the recent Mario and Sonic at the Olympics review by GamePro that suggested casual gamers would like it (though the reviewer wasn't a casual gamer). I think a lot of reviewers are starting to feel like they are having to guess a game might score better for a different crowd...and they are starting to realize, the Wii has succeeded in bringing in players who the reviewers have very little in common with.
End result?
Developers for the Wii need to focus on making great games first. RE4 is selling (over 1 million copies so far), Metroid is selling. Good games sell. Carnival Games is a good game, but I think most publishers, like most reviewers don't understand why, and THAT is why publishers are having a hard time selling games on the Wii.
Those publishers who understand why are going to find themselves selling plenty of games on the Wii. Publishers who try the more traditional approach of putting their third string developers on a port of some key title from another platform, so that they can say they have games on the Wii, are going to find themselves at a loss as to why not only Mario Party and Metroid, but also Carnival Games and Cooking Mama sell and their games don't. In either case, learning who the market is and making good games for that market is the key. The only thing that has changed on the Wii is who that market is. Some developers are still trying to figure that out.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
NPD Re-Cap
Well the NPD numbers have been out for a bit now, so I thought it was worth re-visiting some of the numbers.
The big story is just how many consoles were sold. Over a million between the X360 and the Wii. September is typically a pick-up month as sales start to move slightly upwards before the big holiday spike. The last time a console sold 500k+ in September was 2002 and the PS2. That was the 24th month of the PS2 and came 12 months after the release of the Xbox and GCN. At that point, the launch luster of the other consoles had worn off, and the PS2 was running away with the best-selling console crown. If it wasn't for the launch of Halo3, you could make an argument that the X360 was starting to move into the leadership position for this generation of hardware. Still, it's a key month for the X360, especially if it is able to sustain the momentum through the holidays. Many have pointed out that this could be the first generation in a while where there are two clear winners dealing with different audiences. That certainly seems more plausible with each passing month. Also of note is the Wii. At this point in its life, the Wii is unparalleled in the number of consoles sold in the US. It's been outselling even what the PS2 sold. No console has ever sold this many units per month this early in its life before, which sort of explains whey Nintendo is struggling to keep up with demand.
Metroid Prime 3 sales fell, but not horribly. Clearly, despite the fact that it is a more hard core product, the majority of Wii owners are not buying the game. Possible causes: 1) The majority of Wii owners aren't hard core gamers. 2) The majority of Wii owners are hard core gamers, but they aren't buying Metroid. I think the second item is worth considering. It seems strange, but it seems likely that many hard core gamers simply aren't buying the hard core Wii games. Why? Probably because they have other hardcore systems and are too busy buying games for those systems. So BioShock and The Orange Box will sell well at the expense of Metroid in the Wii60 gamer's house. If that were the case it would be interesting as it would mean those same gamers who are complaining about the lack of hard core games on the Wii are likely causing them to not be made on the Wii by not purchasing the games when they are available. Of course a couple of hit core games should change that...but Metroid is exactly what you'd expect to be a difference maker...and it doesn't seem to have impacted perception much.
EA Sales
Quick question, who is the number 2 game seller on the Wii and what percentage of the games sold are by this publisher? Answer: EA at over 20%.
That is significant!
Why? Well because no publisher is selling over 10% on the DS other than Nintendo. The gap on the the DS is huge, but the Wii has been a different story. Though EA has struggled to create a great game so far on the Wii, they are selling games. In the UK, the top version of Tiger Woods was the Wii version. The US has been a totally different story, but EA has to be encouraged by the percentage of the market they've grabbed so far.
Handheld gaming
Still is struggling. Zelda opened big, not huge, but big. Despite fairly strong hardware sales the PSP software sales have been lagging in both the US and in Japan. Certainly hardware sales will be strong through Christmas, but it will be more interesting to see how the software does. Zelda should sell quite well, but will it? With Nintendo focused on making the Wii a success it seems the DS is feeling a little neglected. Meanwhile, the PSP to PS3 integration I think will continue to be a boon to the PSP.
Heavenly Sword didn't move PS3s. The game was #10 in the charts, but the PS3 numbers don't reflect any real bump. I don't believe any one game moves hardware, so I'm not surprised, but nonetheless, it's good to have some high profile games on the PS3. I expect the price cut and new 40GB system will drive the PS3 sales to close the gap on the X360 in November and December.
Interesting stuff. September could be a big transition month. It might have been the beginning of the X360 dominating hardware sales for this generation. I don't think that is the case, but if it happens, this will be seen as the month as when it all began.
The big story is just how many consoles were sold. Over a million between the X360 and the Wii. September is typically a pick-up month as sales start to move slightly upwards before the big holiday spike. The last time a console sold 500k+ in September was 2002 and the PS2. That was the 24th month of the PS2 and came 12 months after the release of the Xbox and GCN. At that point, the launch luster of the other consoles had worn off, and the PS2 was running away with the best-selling console crown. If it wasn't for the launch of Halo3, you could make an argument that the X360 was starting to move into the leadership position for this generation of hardware. Still, it's a key month for the X360, especially if it is able to sustain the momentum through the holidays. Many have pointed out that this could be the first generation in a while where there are two clear winners dealing with different audiences. That certainly seems more plausible with each passing month. Also of note is the Wii. At this point in its life, the Wii is unparalleled in the number of consoles sold in the US. It's been outselling even what the PS2 sold. No console has ever sold this many units per month this early in its life before, which sort of explains whey Nintendo is struggling to keep up with demand.
Metroid Prime 3 sales fell, but not horribly. Clearly, despite the fact that it is a more hard core product, the majority of Wii owners are not buying the game. Possible causes: 1) The majority of Wii owners aren't hard core gamers. 2) The majority of Wii owners are hard core gamers, but they aren't buying Metroid. I think the second item is worth considering. It seems strange, but it seems likely that many hard core gamers simply aren't buying the hard core Wii games. Why? Probably because they have other hardcore systems and are too busy buying games for those systems. So BioShock and The Orange Box will sell well at the expense of Metroid in the Wii60 gamer's house. If that were the case it would be interesting as it would mean those same gamers who are complaining about the lack of hard core games on the Wii are likely causing them to not be made on the Wii by not purchasing the games when they are available. Of course a couple of hit core games should change that...but Metroid is exactly what you'd expect to be a difference maker...and it doesn't seem to have impacted perception much.
EA Sales
Quick question, who is the number 2 game seller on the Wii and what percentage of the games sold are by this publisher? Answer: EA at over 20%.
That is significant!
Why? Well because no publisher is selling over 10% on the DS other than Nintendo. The gap on the the DS is huge, but the Wii has been a different story. Though EA has struggled to create a great game so far on the Wii, they are selling games. In the UK, the top version of Tiger Woods was the Wii version. The US has been a totally different story, but EA has to be encouraged by the percentage of the market they've grabbed so far.
Handheld gaming
Still is struggling. Zelda opened big, not huge, but big. Despite fairly strong hardware sales the PSP software sales have been lagging in both the US and in Japan. Certainly hardware sales will be strong through Christmas, but it will be more interesting to see how the software does. Zelda should sell quite well, but will it? With Nintendo focused on making the Wii a success it seems the DS is feeling a little neglected. Meanwhile, the PSP to PS3 integration I think will continue to be a boon to the PSP.
Heavenly Sword didn't move PS3s. The game was #10 in the charts, but the PS3 numbers don't reflect any real bump. I don't believe any one game moves hardware, so I'm not surprised, but nonetheless, it's good to have some high profile games on the PS3. I expect the price cut and new 40GB system will drive the PS3 sales to close the gap on the X360 in November and December.
Interesting stuff. September could be a big transition month. It might have been the beginning of the X360 dominating hardware sales for this generation. I don't think that is the case, but if it happens, this will be seen as the month as when it all began.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
You know, for kids
With the announcement of the Xbox 360 Arcade version of the console this week, there has been some noise about how Microsoft is going after Nintendo's 'family' market. While I do think the family market is worth going after, I find it amazing how many people seem to have no understanding as to what the family market is.
Quotes from recent press releases:
The definition of family is: parents and their children, considered as a group [ref: Dictionary.com].
However, the press releases are using the word 'kids' and 'family' as interchangeable. The message is that Sponge Bob is 'family content' and that a 'family' console is one where parents play one thing and kids play something else (and that separation is enforced by 'family settings').
Kids are a part of family and parents are a part of family, but for it to be a family you have to consider them together. Adding kid content to a console does not make it a family console. For it to be a family console, you need to have both kids and parents playing together. (and I'll be real honest with you, I'm not playing Shrek or Sponge Bob)
Consider Wii Sports. It is succeeding not because it is content for only kids or only adults, but because it is content that both kids and adults can play together. It is a family game.
When you think of a 'family' board game, you don't picture kids playing Candyland in the same room where adults are playing 'D&D.' Family is playing together, not having controls to keep the kids from playing what the adults are playing. The fact that you need controls to keep the two separate isn't family friendly, it is an affront to every mother who is involved in purchasing a game system, and if you are looking for a true family system, mom has to be involved in buying it.
Family Controls are something that the core male gamer looks for to keep his kids from playing the 'M' rated games that he is playing. The mother doesn't want the 'M' rated games in the house irregardless of who is playing them. The gamers who are proponents of the idea that blood, violence and sexual content is mature [definition: fully developed in body or mind, as a person], are only further pushing video games into the realm of the juvenile.
Focusing on parental controls and Shrek places the console squarely in the 'OK for my kids' mindset, not in the 'family' mindset.
The misconception that family content is kid content I believe will sink the current Microsoft 'family' campaign. One of the reasons that Pixar movies do well is because they aren't for kids, they really are family content. Adults want to go see them.
In order to create a family platform you need to create something that is enjoyed by both kids and adults together. It is a far from trivial task that Nintendo accomplished with the Wii by focusing on the family and what keeps family members from playing together. The console and controller were designed to make it feel familiar and simple. Nintendo passed on more hard-core designs along the way and have been called crazy by more than a few. Though many will try to take a swipe to get at some of the audience being created by the Wii, any thoughts of it being easy to steal the audience by simply calling something 'family' need to take a better look at the families buying the Wii and the reasons they are buying it.
Kids are a great part of family, and indeed, to meet the definition of family, you need kids. However, forgetting to include the adults while going after the kids doesn't give you any more of a family than you had when you were just going after the adults.
Quotes from recent press releases:
The Xbox 360 Arcade or 'family' system may succeed in spite of its message, but I think that is quite unlikely because the message is missing a fundamental understanding of what a 'family' is....the Xbox 360 Arcade system features the industry leading family settings that allow parents to control what their kids are watching and playing
Nickelodeon delivers three top shows to Xbox LIVE, also available today, including programming for the Nick Jr. hit series "The Backyardigans."
...kids of all ages can download the entire first season of the educational and imaginative, play-to-learn, top-rated preschool series "Blue's Clues."
Also being introduced today are new kid-friendly game titles, "SHREK-N-ROLL" and "SpongeBob SquarePants: Underpants Slam," based on two of the most popular family icons in animation.
The definition of family is: parents and their children, considered as a group [ref: Dictionary.com].
However, the press releases are using the word 'kids' and 'family' as interchangeable. The message is that Sponge Bob is 'family content' and that a 'family' console is one where parents play one thing and kids play something else (and that separation is enforced by 'family settings').
Kids are a part of family and parents are a part of family, but for it to be a family you have to consider them together. Adding kid content to a console does not make it a family console. For it to be a family console, you need to have both kids and parents playing together. (and I'll be real honest with you, I'm not playing Shrek or Sponge Bob)
Consider Wii Sports. It is succeeding not because it is content for only kids or only adults, but because it is content that both kids and adults can play together. It is a family game.
When you think of a 'family' board game, you don't picture kids playing Candyland in the same room where adults are playing 'D&D.' Family is playing together, not having controls to keep the kids from playing what the adults are playing. The fact that you need controls to keep the two separate isn't family friendly, it is an affront to every mother who is involved in purchasing a game system, and if you are looking for a true family system, mom has to be involved in buying it.
Family Controls are something that the core male gamer looks for to keep his kids from playing the 'M' rated games that he is playing. The mother doesn't want the 'M' rated games in the house irregardless of who is playing them. The gamers who are proponents of the idea that blood, violence and sexual content is mature [definition: fully developed in body or mind, as a person], are only further pushing video games into the realm of the juvenile.
Focusing on parental controls and Shrek places the console squarely in the 'OK for my kids' mindset, not in the 'family' mindset.
The misconception that family content is kid content I believe will sink the current Microsoft 'family' campaign. One of the reasons that Pixar movies do well is because they aren't for kids, they really are family content. Adults want to go see them.
In order to create a family platform you need to create something that is enjoyed by both kids and adults together. It is a far from trivial task that Nintendo accomplished with the Wii by focusing on the family and what keeps family members from playing together. The console and controller were designed to make it feel familiar and simple. Nintendo passed on more hard-core designs along the way and have been called crazy by more than a few. Though many will try to take a swipe to get at some of the audience being created by the Wii, any thoughts of it being easy to steal the audience by simply calling something 'family' need to take a better look at the families buying the Wii and the reasons they are buying it.
Kids are a great part of family, and indeed, to meet the definition of family, you need kids. However, forgetting to include the adults while going after the kids doesn't give you any more of a family than you had when you were just going after the adults.
Monday, October 15, 2007
September NPD Predictions
With US (and it's just US let's not forget that) console sales numbers (estimations) about ready to come in, I thought it might be fun to take a look at what the numbers might be this month. Will the Xbox 360 outsell the PS2 for the second time this year? (that would be the 3rd time ever!) How will Halo change things? Did the PSP slim release affect sales?
Here are Michael Patcher's numbers: (who is quite a sport)
Xbox 360 - 450,000
DS - 430,000
Wii - 425,000
PSP - 252,000
PS2 - 220,000
PS3 - 150,000
GBA - 65,000
And a couple of guiding principles:
1 - Sales are usually higher in September than August as Holiday releases begin to occur
2 - Pre-Halo 3 I predicted Xbox 360 numbers at 360k (so despite now knowing the Halo 3 sales numbers I should probably stick with the old prediction, though if I were to change it, 420k sounds about right)
My guesses (Red means my number is lower, green is higher, Black is =)
Xbox 360 - 360,000
DS - 441,000
Wii - 394,000
PSP - 225,000
PS2 - 232,000
PS3 - 150,000
GBA - 70,000
Stories to watch for:
1 - Does the 360 outsell the Wii. With Halo 3, the flagship 360 title out in September, if the 360 doesn't outsell the Wii it would paint an interesting picture.
2 - Does Metroid Prime 3 sell? It was released late in August to rave reviews and pretty 'meh' sales. Perhaps it was just poorly marketed, but it is a good enough title that the mainstream gamers should be picking it up. If it isn't selling, what does it mean to the lifetime of the Wii?
3 - How many of the top 10 games are PS2 games? In August 3 of the top 10 were PS2, 1 was PS2, 2 were Xbox 360 and 4 were Wii.
4 - Will EA solve the Wii 3rd party riddle? Boogie sales were tepid, Madden were disappointing and though the Wii version of Tiger Woods outsold all other versions in the UK, it was a mere afterthought in the US. Will MySims fare better? Will the long term sales of any of the other titles make up for their poor launches?
5 - What happened to handheld gaming? Though the hardware is outselling the consoles, the games, outside of Pokemon, aren't doing much in the charts. Will Zelda's October 1 release put handheld games back on the charts?
6 - Will Guitar Hero just keep on dominating?
7 - Will Heavenly Sword drive console sales?
Here are Michael Patcher's numbers: (who is quite a sport)
Xbox 360 - 450,000
DS - 430,000
Wii - 425,000
PSP - 252,000
PS2 - 220,000
PS3 - 150,000
GBA - 65,000
And a couple of guiding principles:
1 - Sales are usually higher in September than August as Holiday releases begin to occur
2 - Pre-Halo 3 I predicted Xbox 360 numbers at 360k (so despite now knowing the Halo 3 sales numbers I should probably stick with the old prediction, though if I were to change it, 420k sounds about right)
My guesses (Red means my number is lower, green is higher, Black is =)
Xbox 360 - 360,000
DS - 441,000
Wii - 394,000
PSP - 225,000
PS2 - 232,000
PS3 - 150,000
GBA - 70,000
Stories to watch for:
1 - Does the 360 outsell the Wii. With Halo 3, the flagship 360 title out in September, if the 360 doesn't outsell the Wii it would paint an interesting picture.
2 - Does Metroid Prime 3 sell? It was released late in August to rave reviews and pretty 'meh' sales. Perhaps it was just poorly marketed, but it is a good enough title that the mainstream gamers should be picking it up. If it isn't selling, what does it mean to the lifetime of the Wii?
3 - How many of the top 10 games are PS2 games? In August 3 of the top 10 were PS2, 1 was PS2, 2 were Xbox 360 and 4 were Wii.
4 - Will EA solve the Wii 3rd party riddle? Boogie sales were tepid, Madden were disappointing and though the Wii version of Tiger Woods outsold all other versions in the UK, it was a mere afterthought in the US. Will MySims fare better? Will the long term sales of any of the other titles make up for their poor launches?
5 - What happened to handheld gaming? Though the hardware is outselling the consoles, the games, outside of Pokemon, aren't doing much in the charts. Will Zelda's October 1 release put handheld games back on the charts?
6 - Will Guitar Hero just keep on dominating?
7 - Will Heavenly Sword drive console sales?
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